“The older I get, the more clearly I remember things that never happened.” Mark Twain
With the two oldest presidential candidates in US history likely to be on the ballot in November, the issue of age is more salient in 2024 than in any other presidential election since the nation’s founding.
Were he to win the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump would be 78 years old when he takes office in January 2025, and 82 at the end of his term. As the almost certain Republican nominee, and with 81 year old Biden’s probable dementia already center stage, Trump’s age is also an issue.
However, as a sitting president and Commander in Chief at a time when the US is entangled in dangerous proxy wars against Russia, China and Iran, and given his complex medical history, Biden must, by default, be more visible.
As a candidate for the 1988 Democratic presidential nomination, then Senator Biden was forced to drop out of the race in September, 1987 after being caught lying about his academic record at university, inventing stories about his activism in the US civil rights movement and plagiarizing speeches by British politician Neil Kinnock, Robert Kennedy, and President John F. Kennedy.
Less than five months later, in February 1988, Biden suffered two life-threatening brain aneurysms, one on each side of his brain. One of these aneurysms hemorrhaged, requiring the use of a titanium clip to stop the bleeding. The clip is still in his brain.
The Brain Aneurysm Foundation lists the following possible “cognitive deficits” if a patient returns to “a more demanding lifestyle” after an aneurysm.
Physical and mental fatigue
Concentration headaches
Cognitive problems such as short-term memory difficulties, decreased concentration, perception problems
Articulation and speech-delivery problems
Behavioral changes
Loss of balance and coordination
Arm or leg weakness
Given this background, the so called “veepstakes” are no longer a sideshow.
OF CARNIVALS & ELECTION SPECTACLES
Although there is a time honored consensus that the VP candidate is a nearly useless appendage politically, one need look no further than John McCain’s disastrous 2008 selection of Sarah Palin as his VP candidate for a recent election-altering example of why the old rules no longer apply.
Today, most voters believe that VP Kamala Harris is too deeply flawed to serve as president. Only 32% view her positively. She has record low approval ratings that are nearly 20 points underwater, and there is a lingering sense that she embodies an exercise in “box-checking at the expense of political or administrative competence.”
With Harris as the de facto Democratic VP, it seems at least possible that Trump’s choice of a running mate could be unusually impactful electorally. The carnivalesque showman in Trump is of course milking the VP selection process for every second of free media possible by turning it into a MAGA version of The Apprentice.
My take on Trump’s list of prospective VP candidates follows. I’m almost certain to be wrong, so please feel free to jump in with comments.
Kristi Noem, Governor of South Dakota, 52 years old
Noem’s odds are high because Trump has publicly stated that she is near the top of his list of VP candidates. Noem is the only governor in the US who did not shutdown her state during the Covid pandemic based on her interpretation of Constitutional limits on government power. However, one of her many vulnerabilities stems from allegations of a “years long, very public affair” with former Trump aide Corey Lewandowski, and she lacks experience on the national political stage.
Tim Scott, Senator, South Carolina, 58 years old
Scott cannot be dismissed because Trump has specifically mentioned him as a possible VP. NBC News reports that he has risen to the top of the VP list. Scott punches the race card, but the failure of his own presidential bid, explicitly mentioned by Trump, may indicate that he is not ready for the national spotlight. He is also a Senator from a state in which Trump leads Biden by 15 points as of February 2024.
J.D. Vance, Senator, Ohio, 39 years old
Although he started his national political career as a never Trumper, Vance is now one of Trump’s most articulate campaign surrogates. He is also young and is a decorated veteran. However, he has only been in public office one year. He is a white male from a state where Trump has a nearly 10 point lead over Biden in current polling.
Ben Carson, Former HUD Secretary, 72 years old
Trump reportedly likes Carson, and he adds “diversity” to the ticket, but he is a longshot who is both too old and has a history of handling the media poorly.
Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Governor, Arkansas, 41 years old
She lacks charisma and is from ultra conservative Arkansas, which Trump will carry with ease.
Elise Stefanik, Congressional Representative, New York, 39 years old
Stefanik’s star is on the rise after getting two Ivy League university presidents fired due to her grilling of them on the Israel-Hamas issue during recent congressional testimony. Trump insiders have floated her name as an appealing MAGA star who is both young and a woman. Yet Stefanik’s appeal to crucially important suburban women, whether tagged as “soccer moms” or “mama bears,” is untested because her Congressional district is rural and over 90% white.
Kari Lake, US Senate candidate, Arizona, 54 years old
She is too strident, untested in office and from a state where Trump leads Biden by almost 5% in current polling. An extreme longshot.
Tucker Carlson, Tucker Carlson Network, 54 years old
Highly unlikely, and he would be out of his element in the heat of a presidential campaign.
Greg Abbott, Governor of Texas, 66 years old
Unlikely. He is charisma challenged, too old, waited far too long to take action on the border and is not part of Trump’s inner circle.
Vivek Ramaswamy, entrepreneur, 38 years old
The media is abuzz after Ramaswamy and his wife Apoorva appeared with Trump and his wife Melania at Mar a Lago this week. Ramaswamy is a bio-tech billionaire and a relentlessly ambitious self-promoter. His shrill, grating demeanor is unlikely to play well in the 24/7 fishbowl of a presidential campaign. At present, his national unfavorability rating is nearly 12 points higher than his favorability numbers, but he has Trump’s ear.
Although Trump is dismissive of gender and racial equity, his emerging list of potential VP candidates is diverse, with four women, three people under 40, two black candidates and an Indian-American.
I think he is likely to pick a VP candidate who seems capable of activating a potentially decisive constituency with which Republicans typically have trouble, probably a woman and/or one of the under 40 group. I rank their odds as follows.
Scott
Stefanik
Noem
Ramaswamy
Again, I’m almost certain to be wrong, so please feel free to jump in with comments.
NOTE: Those of you who follow me know that I have zero confidence in the circus of national election spectacles to solve the current crisis of democracy. See the Reimagining Politics website to support our work building an interactive, open source visual database of non-partisan citizens’ initiatives.